Signe Normand I am a macro- and vegetation ecologist dedicated to understand vegetation dynamics across space and time

Associate Professor

 

Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity

Department of Bioscience

Aarhus University

Ny Munkegade 116, Building 1540

DK-8000 Aarhus C

Denmark

mail –  webpage

Current Research

What naturalists wish to know is … how [species] are checked in their efforts to over-run the earth (C.H. Merriam, 1894). Answering this old, but unresolved, question is the main focus of my current research. The ranges of species have changed in response to climate change in the past and are expected to change as a consequence of human mediated global warming. Elucidating how species will respond in the future is challenging. It requires insight not only into how contemporary factors constrain species' current ranges, but also how past climate change affects the current occurrence of species. For example, time lagged dispersal after the last ice age might restrict species current ranges. By studying the geographic ranges of European plants, in particular trees, I am currently working towards an integrated understanding of the relative importance and interplay of the three main range determinants (i.e., abiotic factors, especially climate, biotic factors, and migration), both across species' ranges and through time.

Pinus nigra subsp. laricio on Corisca (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)At the edge: Corsican Pine

 

Publications

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Peer-Reviewed

25. Variation in rates of species turnover along gradients (Figure 1, Fitzpatrick et al. 2013)  

25. Environmental and historical imprints on beta diversity: insights from variation in rates of species turnover along gradients

Fitzpatrick MC, Sanders NJ, Normand S, Svenning JC, Ferrier S, Gove AD & Dunn RR

Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 280: 20131201 (2013)

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A common approach for analysing geographical variation in biodiversity involves using linear models to determine the rate at which species similarity declines with geographical or environmental distance and comparing this rate among regions, taxa or communities. Implicit in this approach areweakly justified assumptions that the rate of species turnover remains constant along gradients and that this rate can therefore serve as a means to compare ecological systems. We use generalized dissimilarity modelling, a novel method that accommodates variation in rates of species turnover along gradients and between different gradients, to compare environmental and spatial controls on the floras of two regions with contrasting evolutionary and climatic histories: southwest Australia and northern Europe. We find stronger signals of climate history in the northern European flora and demonstrate that variation in rates of species turnover is persistent across regions, taxa and different gradients. Such variation may represent an important but often overlooked component of biodiversity that complicates comparisons of distance–decay relationships and underscores the importance of using methods that accommodate the curvilinear relationships expected when modelling beta diversity. Determining how rates of species turnover vary along and between gradients is relevant to understanding the sensitivity of ecological systems to environmental change.


Keywords: beta diversity • distance decay • environmental gradient • generalized dissimilarity modelling •history • plant species distributions

24. A greener Greenland? (photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

24. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

Normand S, Randin C, Ohlemüller R, Bay C, Høye TT, Kjær ED, Körner C, Lischke H, Maiorano L, Paulsen J, Pearman PB, Psomas A, Treier UA, Zimmermann NE & Svenning JC
Philosophical Transactions B, 368: 20120479 (2013)

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Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio- Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the 21st century warming will induce a re-colonisation of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential tree-line and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analog climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland’s current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development, and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

 

Keywords: arctic • climatic niche modelling • climate change impact • disequilibrium • postglacial re-colonisation • shrub expansion
23. Interaction. Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier  

23. The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

Wisz et al.

Biological Reviews, 88: 15-30 (2013)

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Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km2 to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.
22. "Source" and "sink" habitats at Langgletscher, Lötschental (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

22. Potential source and sink locations for climate-driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum

Ohlemüller R, Huntley, B, Normand, S & Svenning JC

Global Ecology & Biogeography, 21: 152-163 (2012)

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Aim To identify potential source and sink locations for climate-driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

Location Europe.

Methods We developed a new approach combining past-climate simulations with the concept of analogous climate space. Our index gives a continuous measure of the potential of a location to have acted as a source or a sink for species that have shifted their ranges since the LGM. High glacial source potential is indicated by LGM climatic conditions that are widespread now; high post-glacial sink potential is indicated by current climatic conditions that were widespread at the LGM. The degree of isolation of source and sink areas was calculated as the median distance to areas with analogous climate conditions.

Results We identified areas of high glacial source potential in the previously recognized refugial areas in the southern European peninsulas, but also in large areas in central-western Europe. The most climatically isolated source areas were located in northern Spain, in north-western Europe and in eastern Turkey. From here species would have had to cover substantial distances to find current climate conditions analogous to LGM conditions of these areas. Areas with high postglacial sink potential were mainly located in Fennoscandia and in central and south-eastern Europe. Some of the most isolated sink areas were located in the Spanish highlands and around the Baltic Sea.

Main conclusions Our species-independent approach successfully identified previously recognized glacial refugial areas with high source potential for species range shifts in southern Europe and in addition highlighted other potential source areas in central Europe. This study offers new insights into how the distribution of past and current climatic conditions may have influenced past species range shifts and current large-scale biodiversity patterns.

analogue • climate change • dispersal • Europe • Pleistocene ice age • range dynamics • refugia • species migration

21. Sempervivum montanum: the geographic range of this species is mainly determined by climate (23%) while limited postglacial migration (10%) plays a supplementary role (Photo-copyright: Urs A. Treier)  

21. Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

Normand S, Ricklefs RE, Skov F, Tackenberg O & Svenning JC

Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 278: 3644-3653 (2011)

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The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role.

 

ecological niche modeling • hind-casting • ice age refugia • disequilibrium • plant species distribution • postglacial recolonization

20. Incease in the application of SDM to paleobiological questions over the last decade (Fig. 1a modified; Illulisat Icefjord photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

20. Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

Svenning JC, Fløjgaard C, Marske KA, Nogués-Bravo D & Normand S

Quaternary Science Reviews, 30: 2930-2947 (2011)

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Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview of applications of SDM to paleobiology, outlining the methodology, reviewing SDM-based studies to paleobiology or at the interface of paleo- and neobiology, discussing assumptions and uncertainties as well as how to handle them, and providing a synthesis and outlook. Key methodological issues for SDM applications to paleobiology include predictor variables (types and properties; special emphasis is given to paleoclimate), model validation (particularly important given the emphasis on cross-temporal predictions in paleobiological applications), and the integration of SDM and genetics approaches. Over the last few years the number of studies using SDM to address paleobiology-related questions has increased considerably. While some of these studies only use SDM (23%), most combine them with genetically inferred patterns (49%), paleoecological records (22%), or both (6%). A large number of SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia in biogeography and evolution, especially in Europe, but also in many other regions. SDM-based approaches are also beginning to contribute to a suite of other research questions, such as historical constraints on current distributions and diversity patterns, the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insights into biogeographic dynamics >400 million years ago). We discuss important assumptions and uncertainties that affect the SDM approach to paleobiology - the equilibrium postulate, niche stability, changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations - as well as ways to address these (ensemble, functional SDM, and non-SDM ecoinformatics approaches). We conclude that the SDM approach offers important opportunities for advances in paleobiology by providing a quantitative ecological perspective, and hereby also offers the potential for an enhanced contribution of paleobiology to ecology and conservation biology, e.g., for estimating climate change impacts and for informing ecological restoration.

 

species distribution modeling • hindcasting • ecoinformatics • glacial refugia • biogeography • phylogeography • paleodistribution models • ecological niche modeling.

 

19. Late Pleistocene and Holocene distribution of macrofossil and stomata records for Picea (Fig. 1 modified; Picea abies photo copyright: Normand-Treier)  

19. Tree refugia and slow forest development in response to post-LGM warming in North-Eastern European Russia

Normand S, Treier UA & Odgaard BV

Frontiers of Biogeography, 2.4: 91-93 (2011)

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The paper provides a commentary on the paleoecological study by Väliranta et al. (2011, Journal of Biogeography) and a minireview on open questions such as: How far north did tree species survive the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21kya)? How fast did tree species spread and thus current forest structure develop during post-LGM warming? We conclude that in order to understand the spread of boreal trees and other plant species with post-LGM warming, the areas of the Russian plain and Ural need special attention.

 

Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) • post-LGM warming • boreal trees • Russian plain • Reid’s paradox • fossil record • migration • dispersal
18. Ranunculus glacialis (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

18. 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Engler et al.

Global Change Biology, 17: 2330-2341 (2011) Highlighted in Nature Climate Change

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Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

 

alpine plants • Europe vegetation • global change • impact assessment • species distribution models

17. Rangifer tarandus in Sarek nationalpark, Sweden (Photo-copyright: A Neumann, Biopix.dk)  

17. Deconstructing the mammal species richness pattern in Europe – towards an understanding of the relative importance of climate, biogeographic history, habitat heterogeneity and humans

Fløjgaard C, Normand S, Skov F & Svenning JC

Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20: 218-230 (2011)

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Aim We deconstructed the mammal species richness pattern in Europe to assess the importance of large-scale gradients in current macroclimate relative to biogeographic history, habitat heterogeneity and human influence (HHH variables) as richness determinants for total species, and for widespread and endemic species separately.

Location Europe, west of 30° E.

Methods We deconstructed total species richness (50-km resolution) into its widespread and endemic species richness components. We used simultaneous autoregressive modelling (SAR) with information-theoretic model selection and variation partitioning to assess the importance of macroclimate and HHH variables. The HHH variables included two historical factors, estimated by novel methodologies: (1) ice-age-driven dynamics, represented by accessibility to recolonization from hindcasting-estimated glacial refugia, and (2) biogeographic peninsular dynamics, represented by distance to the entry region for the main European faunal source in western Asia.

Results A large fraction of explained variation was shared between macroclimate and HHH in the SAR models. For total species richness, more variation could be uniquely attributed to macroclimate than to HHH, whereas for the deconstructed patterns (widespread and endemic species) the opposite was the case. Considering the individual factors, there was a strong peninsula effect on both widespread and endemic species richness but not on total richness.

Main conclusions Both macroclimate and HHH variables (history, habitat heterogeneity and human influence) proved important predictors of species richness, but also difficult to disentangle. Notably, biogeographic history, in particular peninsular dynamics, is an important determinant of widespread and endemic species richness.

Climatic stability • dispersal limitation • diversity gradient • endemism • habitat diversity • hindcasting, post-glacial

16. Corsican forest (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

16. Geography, topography, and history affect realized-to-potential tree species richness patterns in Europe

Svenning JC, Fitzpatrick MC, Normand S, Graham CH, Pearman PB, Iverson LR & Skov F

Ecography, 33: 1070-1080 (2010)

 

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Environmental conditions and biotic interactions are generally thought to influence local species richness. However, immigration and the evolutionary and historical factors that shape regional species pools should also contribute to determining local species richness because local communities arise by assembly from regional species pools. Using the European tree flora as our study system, we implemented a novel approach to assess the relative importance of local and regional mechanisms that control local species richness. We first identified species pools that tolerate particular local environments and quantified the proportion of the pool that is present locally, i.e. the realized/potential (R/P) richness ratio. Because no consensus exists on how to estimate potential richness, we estimated it using three different approaches. Using these three estimates separately and in a combined ensemble estimate, we then analyzed the effects of potential drivers on R/P richness ratios. We predicted that the R/P richness ratio would 1) increase with decreasing distance from glacial refugia (accessibility), 2) and be generally low in geographically fragmented southern Europe because of dispersal limitation; 3) increase with actual evapotranspiration because greater availability of water and energy promotes local population persistence; and 4) increase with topographic heterogeneity because it promotes local species coexistence and facilitates long-term species survival. There was considerable variation among the three R/P richness ratio estimates, but we found consistent support for a negative effect of regional geographic fragmentation and a positive topographic effect. We also identified fairly broad support for the predicted effect of accessibility. We conclude that local tree assemblages in Europe often fail to realize a large proportion of the potential richness held in the regional species pool, partially reflecting their geographical, historical, and environmental circumstances. The dispersal-related effects of geographic fragmentation and accessibility exemplify regional controls that combine with local ecological sorting to determine local species richness.

15. Carex flacca in sun (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

15. Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species' responses to climatic gradients

Normand S, Treier UA, Randin C, Vittoz P, Guisan A & Svenning JC

Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18: 437-449 (2009)

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Aim: We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determines upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs.

 

Location: Europe and the Swiss Alps.

 

Methods: The AASL hypothesis predicts that species have skewed responses to climatic gradients, with a steep decline towards the more stressful conditions. Based on presence–absence data we examined the shape of plant species responses (measured as probability of occurrence) along three climatic gradients across latitudes in Europe (1577 species) and altitudes in the Swiss Alps (284 species) using Huisman–Olff–Fresco, generalized linear and generalized additive models.

 

Results: We found that almost half of the species from Europe and one-third from the Swiss Alps showed responses consistent with the predictions of the AASL hypothesis. Cold temperatures and a short growing season seemed to determine the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of up to one-third of the species, while drought provided an important constraint at lower-latitudinal range limits for up to one-fifth of the species. We found a biome-dependent influence of abiotic stress and no clear support for abiotic stress as a stronger upper range-limit determinant for species with higher latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, the overall influence of climate as a range-limit determinant increased with latitude.

 

Main conclusions: Our results support the AASL hypothesis for almost half of the studied species, and suggest that temperature-related stress controls the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of a large proportion of these species, while other factors including drought stress may be important at the lower range limits.

 

Keywords: Biotic interactions • climate • Europe • HOF models • physiological tolerance • plant species • response curves • spatial scale • Swiss Alps

14. Apodemus flavicollis (Photo-copyright: JC Schou, Biopix.dk)  

14. Ice age distributions of European small mammals: insights from species distribution modelling

Fløjgaard C, Normand S, Skov S & Svenning JC

Journal of Biogeography, 36: 1152-1163 (2009)

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Aim In addition to the traditionally recognized Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) refuge areas in the Mediterranean region, more northerly LGM distributions for temperate and boreal taxa in central and eastern Europe are increasingly being discussed based on palaeoecological and phylogeographical evidence. Our aim was to investigate the potential refuge locations using species distribution modelling to estimate the geographical distribution of suitable climatic conditions for selected rodent species during the LGM.

 

Location Eurasia.

 

Methods Presence/absence data for seven rodent species with range limits corresponding to the limits of temperate or boreal forest or arctic tundra were used in the analysis. We developed predictive distribution models based on the species present-day European distributions and validated these against their present-day Siberian ranges. The models with the best predictors of the species distributions across Siberia were projected onto LGM climate simulations to assess the distribution of climatically suitable areas.

 

Results The best distribution models provided good predictions of the present-day Siberian ranges of the study species. Their LGM projections showed that areas with a suitable LGM climate for the three temperate species (Apodemus flavicollis, Apodemus sylvaticus and Microtus arvalis) were largely restricted to the traditionally recognized southern refuge areas, i.e. mainly in the Mediterranean region, but also southernmost France and southern parts of the Russian Plain. In contrast, suitable climatic conditions for the two boreal species (Clethrionomys glareous and Microtus agrestis) were predicted as far north as southern England and across southern parts of central and eastern Europe eastwards into the Russian Plain. For the two arctic species (Lemmus lemmus and Microtus oeconomus), suitable climate was predicted from the Atlantic coast eastward across central Europe and into Russia.

 

Main conclusions Our results support the idea of more northerly refuge areas in Europe, indicating that boreal species would have found suitable living conditions over much of southern central and eastern Europe and the Russian Plain. Temperate species would have primarily found suitable conditions in the traditional southern refuge areas, but interestingly also in much of the southern Russian Plain.

 

Climate change • Cryptic refugia • Distribution models • Europe • Hind-casting • Last Glacial Maximum • Quaternary • Rodents • Species distribution • Species range

13. Plant biodiversity on the move (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

13. Big moving day for biodiversity? A macroecological assessment of the scope for assisted colonization as a conservation strategy under global warming

Svenning JC, Fløjgaard C, Morueta-Holme N, Lenoir J, Normand S, Skov F

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 8: 012017 (2009)

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Future climate change constitutes a major threat to Earth's biodiversity. If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, 21st century climate change is likely to exceed the natural adaptive capacity of many natural ecosystems and a large proportion of species may risk extinction. A recurrent finding is that the degree of negative impact depends strongly on the dispersal potential of the species. However, there is a growing realization that many, if not most species would be unlikely to disperse as fast and far as required. As a consequence, it has been proposed that species at risk should be actively translocated into unoccupied, but environmentally suitable areas that are likely to stay suitable over the next 100 or more years (assisted colonization or assisted migration). This solution is controversial, though, reflecting negative experiences with introduced exotics and probably also the traditional emphasis in conservation management on preserving a certain local, often historical situation with a static species composition, and a tendency among ecologists to think of biological communities as generally saturated with species. Using the European flora as a case study, we here estimate the main environmental controls of plant species richness, assess how the maximum observed species richness depends on these environmental controls, and based here on estimate how many species could at least be added to an area before further species additions would perhaps inevitably lead to corresponding losses locally. Our results suggest that there is substantial room for additional plant species across most areas of Europe, indicating that there is considerable scope for implementing assisted colonization as a proactive conservation strategy under global warming without necessarily implicating negative effects on the native flora in the areas targeted for establishment of translocated populations. Notably, our results suggest that 50% of the cells in Northern Europe, the likely target area for many translocations, could harbor at least 1/3 as many additional species as they have native species. However, we also emphasize that other, more traditional conservation strategies should also be strengthened, notably providing more space for nature and reducing nitrogen deposition to increase population resilience and facilitate unassisted colonization. Furthermore, any implementation of assisted colonization should be done cautiously, with a careful analysis on a species-by-species case.

12. Coastal dune landscape, Fanoe, Denmark (Photo-copyright: Environmental Centre Ribe)  

12. Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark

Skov F, Nygaard B, Wind P, Borchsenius F, Normand S, Balslev H, Fløjgaard C & Svenning JC

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 8: 012015 (2009)

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In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Sørensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48–78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and adaptive management is adopted. Modeling techniques can be constantly improved, but will never be perfect and should therefore be linked to a fine-masked network of observatories to check model predictions and feed empirical data back into the models for calibration and further development.

11. Species rich meadow and geographic heterogeneity (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

11. Plio-Pleistocene climate change and geographic heterogeneity in plant diversity-environment relationships

Svenning J-C, Normand S & Skov F

Ecography, 32: 13-21 (2009)

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Plio-Pleistocene climate change may have induced geographic heterogeneity in plant species richness–environment relationships in Europe due to greater in situ species survival and speciation rates in southern Europe. We formulate distinct hypotheses on how Plio-Pleistocene climate change may have affected richness–topographic heterogeneity and richness–water-energy availability relationships, causing steeper relationships in southern Europe. We investigated these hypotheses using data from Atlas Florae Europaeae on the distribution of 3069 species and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our analyses showed that plant species richness generally increased with topographic heterogeneity (ln-transformed altitudinal range) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). We also found evidence for strong geographic heterogeneity in the species richness–environment relationship, with a greater increase in species richness with increasing topographic heterogeneity in southern Europe (mean standardized local slope 0.610±0.245 SD in southern Europe, but only 0.270±0.175 SD in northern Europe). However, the local AET slopes were, at most, weakly different between the two regions, and their pattern did not conform to predictions, as there was a band of high local slopes across southern-central northern Europe. This band broadly matches the transition between the temperate and boreal zones and may simply reflect the fact that few species tolerate the boreal climate. We discuss the potential explanations for the contrasting findings for the two richness–environment relationships. In conclusion, we find support for the idea that Plio-Pleistocene climate change may sometimes affect current species richness–environment relationships via its effects on regional species pools. However, further studies integrating information on species ages and clade differentiation rates will be needed to substantiate this interpretation. On a general level, our results indicate that although strong richness–environment relationships are often found in macroecological studies, these can be contingent upon the historical constraints on the species pool.

 

 

 

10. Weisshorn and Matterhorn in the Swiss Alps (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

10. Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Randin CF, Engler R, Normand S, Zappa M, Zimmermann NE, Pearman PB, Vittoz P, Thuiller W & Guisan A

Global Change Biology, 15: 1557-1569 (2009)

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Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range, and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolutions and geographic extents. Here, we assess whether climate change-induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10–10′ grid cells) are also predicted from local-scale data and modeling (25mx25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10–10′ cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local-scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

 

Keywords: Climate change • Europe • mountain region • species distribution model • Swiss Alps

9. Shift in cytotype frequency and niche space in the invasive plant Centaurea maculosa (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

9. Shift in cytotype frequency and niche space in the invasive plant Centaurea maculosa

Treier UA, Broennimann O, Normand S, Guisan A, Schaffner U, Steinger T & Müller-Schärer H

Ecology, 90: 1366-1377 (2009)

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Polyploidy is often assumed to increase the spread and thus the success of alien plant species, but few empirical studies exist. We tested this hypothesis with Centaurea maculosa Lam., a species native to Europe and introduced into North America approximately 120 years ago where it became highly invasive. We analyzed the ploidy level of more than 2000 plants from 93 native and 48 invasive C. maculosa populations and found a pronounced shift in the relative frequency of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes. In Europe diploid populations occur in higher frequencies than tetraploids and only four populations had both cytotypes, while in North America diploid plants were found in only one mixed population and thus tetraploids clearly dominated. Our results showed a pronounced shift in the climatic niche between tetraploid populations in the native and introduced range toward drier climate in North America and a similar albeit smaller shift between diploids and tetraploids in the native range. The field data indicate that diploids have a predominately monocarpic life cycle, while tetraploids are often polycarpic. Additionally, the polycarpic life-form seems to be more prevalent among tetraploids in the introduced range than among tetraploids in the native range. Our study suggests that both ploidy types of C. maculosa were introduced into North America, but tetraploids became the dominant cytotype with invasion. We suggest that the invasive success of C. maculosa is partly due to preadaptation of the tetraploid cytotype in Europe to drier climate and possibly further adaptation to these conditions in the introduced range. The potential for earlier and longer seed production associated with the polycarpic life cycle constitutes an additional factor that may have led to the dominance of tetraploids over diploids in the introduced range.

 

Keywords: alien species • biogeography • biological invasion • Centaurea stoebe • ecological niche • ecological tolerance • flow cytometry • niche breadth • niche shift • ploidy • polyploidization • spotted knapweed

8. Salix herbacea (Photo-copyright: Inger Alsos)  

8. Past and future range shifts and loss of diversity in Dwarf Willow (Salix herbacea L.) inferred from genetics, fossils, and modelling

Alsos I, Alm T, Normand S & Brochmann C

Global Ecology & Biogeography, 18: 223-239 (2009)

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Aim Climate change may cause loss of genetic diversity. Here we explore how a multidisciplinary approach can be used to infer effects of past climate change on species distribution and genetic diversity and also to predict loss of diversity due to future climate change. We use the arctic-alpine plant Salix herbacea L. as a model.

 

Location Europe, Greenland and eastern North America.

 

Methods We analysed 399 samples from 41 populations for amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) to identify current patterns of genetic structure and diversity and likely historical dispersal routes. Macrofossil records were compiled to infer past distribution, and species distribution models were used to predict the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and future distribution of climatically suitable areas.

 

Results We found strong genetic differentiation between the populations from Europe/East Greenland and those from Canada/West Greenland, indicating a split probably predating the LGM. Much less differentiation was observed among the four genetic groups identified in Europe, and diversity was high in the Scandinavian as well as in southern alpine populations. Continuous distribution in Central Europe during the last glaciation was inferred based on the fossil records and distribution modelling. A 46–57% reduction in suitable areas was predicted in 2080 compared to present. However, mainly southern alpine populations may go extinct, causing a loss of about 5% of the genetic diversity in the species.

 

Main conclusions From a continuous range in Central Europe during the last glaciation, northward colonization probably occurred as a broad front maintaining diversity as the climate warmed. This explains why potential extinction of southern populations by 2080 will cause a comparatively low loss of the genetic diversity in S. herbacea . For other species with different glacial histories, however, the expected climate-change induced regional extinction may cause a more severe loss of genetic diversity. We conclude that our multidisciplinary approach may be a useful tool for assessing impact of climate change on loss of genetic diversity.

 

Amphi-Atlantic • Arctic-alpine • Climate change • Colonization • Conservation genetics • Glacial refugia • Ice age • Phylogeography • Range shifts

 

7. Establishment of Picea abies along the Aletsch Glacier (Photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

7. Glacial refugia of temperate trees in Europe: insights from species distribution modelling

Svenning J-C, Normand S & Kageyama M

Journal of Ecology (Editor's Choice), 96: 1117–1127 (2008)

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1. The Pleistocene is an important period for assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago), large glaciers and permafrost reached far south in Europe. Trees are traditionally thought to have survived only in scattered Mediterranean refugia (southern refugia hypothesis), but a recent proposal suggests that trees may have been much more widely and northerly distributed (northern refugia hypothesis).

 

2. In this study, the southern vs. northern refugia hypotheses were investigated by estimating the potential LGM distributions of 7 boreal and 15 nemoral widespread European tree species using species distribution modelling. The models were calibrated using data for modern species distributions and climate and projected onto two LGM climate simulations for Europe. Five modelling variants were implemented.

 

3. Models with moderate to good predictive ability for current species range limits and species richness patterns were developed.

 

4. Broadly consistent results were obtained irrespective of the climate simulation and modelling variant used. Our results indicate that LGM climatic conditions suitable for boreal species existed across Central and Eastern Europe and into the Russian Plain. In contrast, suitable climatic conditions for nemoral tree species were largely restricted to the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions. Large proportions of these northern and southern regions would have been suitable for a number of boreal or boreal plus nemoral tree species, respectively.

 

5. These findings are consistent with recent palaeoecological and phylogeographic data regarding LGM distributions of trees and other boreal and nemoral taxa.

 

6. Synthesis. It is clear that the view of the LGM landscape in Europe as largely treeless, especially north of the Alps, needs to be revised. Trees were probably much more widespread during the LGM than hitherto thought, although patchily distributed at low densities due to low atmospheric CO2 concentrations and high wind-speeds. The findings presented here help explain the occurrence of mammal assemblages with mixtures of forest, tundra and steppe species at many localities in southern Central and Eastern Europe during the LGM, as well as the phylogeographic evidence for the extra-Mediterranean persistence of many boreal species.

 

Climate change •  Cryptic refugia • Hind-casting • Ice age refugia • Last Glacial Maximum • Maximum entropy species distribution modelling • Pleistocene • Pleniglacial vegetation • Range dynamics • Tree species distributions

 

6. Ceroxylon echinulatum (Arecaceae) in the Andes (Photo-copyright: Philipp Trénel)  

6. Landscape genetics, historical isolation and cross-Andean gene flow in the wax palm, Ceroxylon echinulatum (Arecaceae)

Trénel P, Hansen MM, Normand S & Borchsenius F

Molecular Ecology, 17: 3528-3540 (2008)

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Knowledge of the role of landscapes in shaping genetic connectivity and divergence is essential for understanding patterns of biogeography and diversity. This is particularly relevant for the Andes region, a major biodiversity hotspot of relatively recent origin. We examined the phylogeography and landscape genetics of the Andean wax palm Ceroxylon echinulatum (Arecaceae) that occurs in two narrow bands of montane forests on each side of the Andes in Ecuador and northeastern Peru. First, we tested the hypothesis of C. echinulatum being a geographic cline species crossing the Andes in the Amotape–Huancabamba zone (AHZ) of southern Ecuador/northern Peru, as indicated by observations on fruit morphology. Second, we assessed the timeframe of cross-Andean divergence, and third, we investigated the impact of contemporary and historical landscape features on observed spatio-genetic patterns. Individual-based Bayesian clustering (BC) identified a northeastern, southeastern, southwestern, and northwestern cluster, with areas of genetic discontinuity coinciding with the Andes and the Giron–Paute deflection. F-statistics derived from BC suggested an east-to-west dispersal history. Population-based analyses revealed strong genetic structuring at both small and large geographic scales. Interpopulation relationships and Mantel tests strongly supported the cline model with cross-Andean dispersal in the AHZ. Along the cline, gene flow measured as FST was mainly limited by distance, with less but significant impact of climatic friction. Coalescent analysis revealed that cross-Andean divergence took place during the Quaternary. Significant historical isolation (RST > FST) was found in the southwestern population. The current study illustrates a joint effect of founder dynamics, divergence by distance and historical isolation on patterns of Andean diversity and distribution.

 

Amotape-Huancabamba zone • Andean phylogeography • Clinal isolation • Landscape genetics • Palmae • Vicariance

5. Frozen fruit of Acer pseudoplatanus (Photo-copyright: JC Svenning)  

5. Postglacial dispersal limitation of widespread forest plant species in nemoral Europe

Svenning J-C, Normand S & Skov F

Ecography, 31: 316-326 (2008)

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Climate is often singled out as the primary range limiting factor at large scales, while other environmental factors, notably soil, are thought to predominate at smaller scales. However, the postglacial migrational lag hypothesis controversially suggests that many species are strongly dispersal-limited and still expanding from their ice age refugia. We investigated the importance of postglacial migrational lag, climate, and soil as range determinants for 47 widespread forest plant species across nemoral Europe (47.0–60.0°N, west of 24.0°E) using regression modeling, information-theoretic model selection, multi-model inference, and variation partitioning. Migrational lag was represented by a measure of accessibility to recolonization from ice age refugia. Twelve species were largely ubiquitous and not analyzed further. For the remaining species, there was strong support for climate, soil, and accessibility to postglacial recolonization. Accessibility accounted for a small to moderate amount of variation, but its model-averaged regression coefficient was stronger than those for climate or soil for 11 species and the second or third strongest coefficient for an additional 10 species. The resulting odds ratios were greater than one for 33 out of 35 species, i.e. adjusted for climate and soil, prevalence for the far majority of the 35 non-ubiquitous species increased with increasing accessibility. There were no differences among growth forms in the importance of accessibility. In contrast, compared to non-boreal species, accessibility had little importance for species with wide boreal distributions, as expected from their more widespread, northern glacial distributions. In conclusion, even the ranges of many widespread forest plant species are probably still moderately to strongly limited by postglacial migrational lag. Therefore, although species ranges are also strongly influenced by climate, we cannot expect most forest plant species to closely track the expected 21st century climatic changes.

 

4. Drifting dune (Raabjerg Mile, Denmark)(Photo: Normand-Treier)  

4. National and European perspectives on climate change sensitivity of the Habitats Directive characteristic plant species

Normand S, Svenning JC & Skov F

Journal for Nature Conservation, 15: 41-53 (2007)

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The main goal of the Habitats Directive, a key document for European conservation, is to maintain a ‘favourable’ conservation status of selected species and habitats. In the face of near-future climatic change this goal may become difficult to achieve. Here, we evaluate the sensitivity to climate change of 84 plant species that characterise the Danish habitat types included in the Habitats Directive. A fuzzy bioclimatic envelope model, linking European and Northwest African species’ distribution data with climate, was used to predict climatically suitable areas for these species in year 2100 under two-climate change scenarios. Climate sensitivity was evaluated at both Danish and European scales to provide an explicit European perspective on the impacts predicted for Denmark. In all 69–99% of the species were predicted to become negatively affected by climate change at either scale. Application of international Red List criteria showed that 43–55% and 17–69% would become vulnerable in Denmark and Europe, respectively. Northwest African atlas data were used to improve the ecological accuracy of the future predictions. For comparison, using only European data added 0–7% to these numbers. No species were predicted to become extinct in Europe, but 4–7% could be lost from Denmark. Some species were predicted to become positively affected in Denmark, but negatively affected in Europe. In addition to nationally endangered species, this group would be an important focus for a Danish conservation strategy. A geographically differentiated Danish conservation strategy is suggested as the eastern part of Denmark was predicted to be more negatively affected than the western part. No differences in the sensitivity of the Habitats Directive habitats were found. We conclude that the conservation strategy of the Habitats Directive needs to integrate the expected shifts in species’ distributions due to climate change.

 

bioclimatic envelope modelling • conservation • global warming • vegetation impact

3. Range filling versus range size for 1577 European plant species (Figure 2 in Svenning et al. 2006, Journal of Biogeography)  

3. Range filling in European trees

Svenning JC, Normand S & Skov F

Journal of Biogeography, 33: 2018-2021 (2006)

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A response to Welk, E. & Bruelheide, H. (2006) There may be bias in R/P ratios (realized vs. potential range) calculated for European tree species - an illustrated comment on SVENNING & SKOV. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 2013-2018.

 

In their comment, Welk & Bruelheide (2006; hereafter, W&B) argue that the results of Svenning & Skov (2004; hereafter, S&S) are too influenced by confounding factors and biases to support our conclusion that the low R/P ratios found for many European tree species to a large extent reflect dispersal limitation. Although we agree that the estimation of potential species ranges is a topic that needs much further study, we believe the S&S results are at least qualitatively robust, and explain why below. Our response follows the structure of W&B's commentary.

2. Counting all individuals of palms in 5x500 m transects in the Amazon (Photo-copyright: Lærke Stewart)  

2. Geographical and environmental controls of palm beta diversity in paleo-riverine terrace forests in Amazonian Peru

Normand S, Vormisto J, Svenning JC, Grandez C & Balslev H

Plant Ecology, 186: 161-176 (2006)

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The palm (Arecaceae) community on low paleo-riverine terraces (terrace forest) in the north-western
Amazon, is described, and we assessed the importance of environmental differences and geographic distance as drivers of its local (25 m2 grain and 0–500 m extent) and regional scale (500 m2 grain and
0.3–143 km extent) beta diversity using ordination, multiple regressions on distance matrices and Indicator Species Analysis. A total of 15,869 individuals and 37 species of palm were sampled in 10 terrace forest transects, while 3758 individuals and 21 species were sampled in two adjacent floodplain forest transects for comparison. The terrace and floodplain forest were clearly different in their diversity and floristic composition. The relative importance of geographical distance and environmental difference as controls of terrace forest beta diversity was scale dependent, with environmental differences, notably in soil moisture, dominating at local scales and geographical distance dominating at regional scales. In fact, none of the environmental factors had a significant influence on regional-scale beta diversity. The geographical distance decay in floristic similarity was markedly steeper at local scale (–0.25 km–1) than at regional scale (–0.003 km–1). Such a nonlinear decay is expected if simple dispersal limitation controls beta diversity. However, the absent flattening of the distance decay at the largest distances and the sub-Andean affinities of the westernmost palm communities suggest that large-scale biogeographical processes also contribute to the regional-scale beta diversity. Hereby our results indicate that not only local environment, but also dispersal limitation and biogeographical history can be important controls of the diversity and composition of local plant communities.

 

dispersal limitation • distance decay • regional factors • scale dependency

1. Aphandra natalia (Peruvian Amazon)(Photo-copyright: Mikkel Boel Sørensen)  

1. Spatial distribution and environmental preferences of the piassaba palm Aphandra natalia (Arecaceae) along the Pastaza and Urituyacu rivers in Peru

Boll T, Svenning JC, Vormisto J, Normand S, Grandez C & Balslev H

Forest Ecology and Management, 213: 175-183 (2005)

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Aphandra natalia (Balslev and Henderson) Barfod, an economically important fibre producing palm, is common in rainforest on low terraces along the Pastaza and Urituyacu rivers in Amazonian Peru. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and environmental preferences of Aphandra in old-growth terrace forest to which it is limited in this region.Densities of immature and mature individuals were 507 ± 212 (S.D.) ha-1 and 19 ± 8 ha-1, respectively, in 11 (5 x 500 m) transects placed in old growth terrace forest near four villages and 739 ± 188 ha-1 and 96 ± 49 ha-1, respectively, in six irregular transects placed in what the local villagers considered dense Aphandra stands. We examined environmental and spatial correlates of Aphandra occurrences using stepwise multiple autologistic regressions. Site, soil moisture, slope inclination, and topographic position influenced the spatial distribution of Aphandra. Furthermore, the distribution was strongly clumped, independently of environmental factors, with particularly the concentration of immature individuals around adults pointing to dispersal limitation as the likely causal mechanism.

 

dispersal limitation • ecological sustainability • extractivism • fibre plants • non-timber forest products • palms • recruitment • resource availability • tropical rainforest

 

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Other Publications

9. Arctic tundra in change (photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)  

9. Arctic tundra in change / Die arktische Tundra wandelt sich

Treier UA & Normand S
Kennzeichen DK, 2015, Nr. 104.

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Global change does not manifest itself everywhere to the same extend. In the arctic, temperatures rise faster than average which affects the occurrence and distribution of plants. Signe Normand and her team at Aarhus University, Denmark, aims at understanding the underlying processes.

 

Die globale Erwärmung manifestiert sich nicht überall gleich, in der Arktis wird es überdurchschnittlich wärmer. Das wirkt sich auf das Vorkommen und die Verbreitung der Pflanzen aus. Ein dänisches Forscherteam um Signe Normand von der Universität Aarhus untersucht die Zusammenhänge.

 

Keywords: arctic • climate change • shrub expansion • drone ecology • UAS • Greenland

8. Frontpage of the book: Grønlands fascinationskraft (ed. Marita Akhøj Nielsen)  

8. Greenlands Biodiversity – importance of climate in the past, at present and in the future / Grønlands biodiversitet – klimaets betydning i fortid, nutid og fremtid

Normand S, Forchhammer MC, Høye TT, Jeppesen E & Svenning JC
Grønlands fascinationskraft: Fortællinger om polarforskningen. Et festskrift til Hendes Majestæt Dronning Margrethe II ved 40-års-regeringsjubilæet (red. Marita Akhøj Nielsen): 148-161 (in Danish, 2012).

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Grønland er temaet for Videnskabernes Selskabs festskrift til Dronningen i anledning af regeringsjubilæet. Det er kongehusets varme engagement i Grønland, der har været bestemmende for valget af tema. Medlemmer af Videnskabernes Selskab er blevet bedt om at give en alment forståelig fremstilling af et emne med relation til Grønland. Nogle har valgt at behandle et felt, der står centralt i deres daglige arbejde, andre er blevet udfordret til at tage nye emner op eller behandle dem ud fra en uvant synsvinkel.

Det er blevet til 12 artikler fra en bred fagrække

 

Det er blevet til 12 artikler fra en bred fagrække:

Minik Rosing: »Grønland – en verden af mineraler«

• Vagn Fabritius Buchwald: »Meteoritter og inuitter i Nordvestgrønland«

• Hans Thybo: »Bjergkæder i Grønland – sammenhæng mellem topografiske og geologiske processer«

• Dorthe Dahl-Jensen og Jørgen Peder Steffensen: »Indlandsisen på Grønland – et levende fjeld fortæller klimahistorie«

Lars Jørgensen, Bjarne Grønnow, Jette Arneborg og Hans Christian Gulløv: »At ordne min verden – billeder af inuits og nordboernes mentale landskaber gennem 4500 år«

• Knud J.V. Jespersen og Signe Lindskov Hansen: »Kongehuset og Grønland – i ord og billeder«

• Torben M. Andersen: »Grønlands økonomi«

• Reinhardt Møbjerg Kristensen: »Diskos dyr til vands og til lands«

• Marita Akhøj Nielsen: »Glimt af Grønlandsforskningen – på opdagelse i Videnskabernes Selskabs skrifter«

Signe Normand, Mads Forchhammer, Toke T. Høye, Erik Jeppesen og Jens-Christian Svenning: »Grønlands biodiversitet – klimaets betydning i fortid, nutid og fremtid«

• Ellen Margrethe Basse: »Miljøretlige udfordringer i Grønland«

Kirsten Hastrup: »Det yderste Thule – fangerfolk og klimaforandringer i Nordvestgrønland«

 

På hvert deres felt formidler forskerne noget af den begejstring, der knytter sig til det videnskabelige arbejde, og tilsammen viser de, hvordan mangfoldigheden af perspektiver på et givet tema beriger dem alle. Dermed spejler de også Videnskabernes Selskabs virke.

HM Dronningen fik festkriftet overrakt ved et symposium i Videnskabernes Selskabs gamle mødesal torsdag den 4. oktober. Se optagelserne fra Kirsten Hastrups velkomst her eller klik på de fremhævede forfattere ovenover, som holdt foredrag ved symposiet.

 

Keywords: arctic • climatic niche modelling • biodiversity • plants • animals

7. Species richness in Europe (Fig. 2)  

7. Distribution of the European Flora: current patterns with historical fingerprints / Fordelingen af Europas flora: nutidige mønstre med historiske fingeraftryk

Normand S
Dansk Naturhistorisk Forenings Årsskrift nr. 21 og 22 – 2010/2011 og 2011/2012: 6 pages (in Danish, 2012)

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Kvartærtidens dramatiske klimaændringer har ændret planters geografiske fordeling gennem tiden. Det har efterladt varige fingeraftryk på europæiske plantearters nutidige udbredelser. Hvor, hvordan og i hvilken grad? Det belyser denne artikel.

 

Keywords: Quaternary • climatic niche modelling • biodiversity • species richness • ice age
6. Frontpage of KFT’s konferencemagasin: Klima & Tilpasning  

6. A tool for management of nature in change / Værktøj til forvaltning af natur i forandring

Fløjgaard C, Morueta-Holme N, Normand S, Svenning JC & Skov F

KFT’s konferencemagasin (red. Lars Moseholm): 42-43 (in Danish, 2010)

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Forudsigelser af arternes respons på klimaændringerne er et vigtigt værktøj i planlægningen af en klimatilpasset naturforvaltning i Danmark.

 

 

5. Danish forest, Hald sø (Photo-copyright: JC Schou, Biopix.dk)  

5. Who comes, Who disappears?/ Hvad kommer, hvad forsvinder

Morueta-Holme N, Normand S, Fløjgaard C, Skov F & Svenning JC

KFT’s konferencemagasin (red. Lars Moseholm): 40-41 (in Danish, 2010)

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Klimaændringerne vil over de næste 100 år ændre levevilkårene for dyr og planter. Hvad kan vi gøre for at hindre negative og uønskede konsekvenser for naturen af et ændret klima?


4. Frontpage of the book: Klimaændringerne: Menneskehedens hidtil største udfordring (ed. Hans Meltofte)  

4. What happens with nature when climate changes? / Hvad sker der med naturen, når klimaet ændrer sig?

Skov F, Svenning JC & Normand S

Klimaændringerne: Menneskehedens hidtil største udfordring (ed. H. Meltofte): 75-85 (In Danish, 2008)

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Klimaet er bestemmende for udbredelsen af plantebælter på Jorden og har dermed stor indflydelse på biodiversiteten. Den globale opvarmning, vi står over for, er af en størrelsesorden, der ikke er set de sidste mange millioner år. Hvordan vil det påvirke biodiversiteten globalt, og hvad vil der ske med naturen og arterne i Danmark?

3. Potential distribution of Saxifraga hirculus in year 2100. A species that might disappear from Denmark (Figure 3 in Svenning et al. 2007, Flora & Fauna, Photo-copyright: Kamilla Harlev Jensen)  

3. Consequences of global warming for the Danish flora and vegetation / Konsekvenser af den globale opvarmning for den danske flora og vegetation

Svenning JC, Normand S, & Skov F

Flora & Fauna, 113: 11-120 (In Danish, 2007)

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Earth’s climate is changing, primarily due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Past climate changes have had strong impacts of the flora of Europe, notably causing numerous extinctions at the onset of the Quaternary ice ages 2-3 million years ago. How will the current climate change affect the Danish flora and vegetation? We investigate this issue using bioclimatic species distribution modeling, assessing the potential impact of the climate change expected under the ICCP climate change scenarios B2 and A2 on the distribution of 104 selected plant species. The study species include 84 native species on the EU Habitats Directive list of habitat characteristic species as well as several sets of supplementary species. We find that under the A2 scenario climatic suitability will decrease for 83- 85% of the native characteristic species, which on average will loose 34- 42% of the current climatic suitability. Under the B2 scenario, suitability losses are smaller, but nevertheless 75-77% of the native characteristic species will experience decreased climatic suitability. The native Danish trees are predicted to be robust to the impending climate changes, while climate will become highly marginal to the introduced Picea abies. Many southern species, including evergreen tree species from Southern Europe and invasive species, should be able to thrive in Denmark under the expected future climates. To minimize the risk of potentially large plant diversity losses, priority should be given to minimize climate change and to mitigate the negative effects of climate change by ensuring the existence of large, well-connected natural areas as well as large, widely distributed populations, and, if necessary, direct translocation of species to areas with a suitable climate.

2. Carex maritima (Photo-copyright: Thomas Retsloff)  

2. Carex maritima rediscovered in Denmark / Krum Star genfundet i Danmark

Normand S, Frederiksen RF, Wind P, Retsloff T

Urt, 31: 68-71 (in Danish, 2007)

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Krum star (Carex maritima) er sidst observeret i Danmark i 1994. Vi genfandt den i en klitlavning ved Tversted Klitplantage i juni 2005.
1. Glaucium flavum: a species that might be positively affected by future climate warming  

1. Potential consequences of climate change on species distributions and biodiversity in Denmark / Sandsynlige konsekvenser af klimaændringer på artsudbredelser og biodiversitet i Danmark

Skov F, Svenning JC & Normand S

Miljøprojekt, 1120: ISBN 87-7052-248-0 (in Danish, 2006)

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I denne rapport analyseres de potentielle konsekvenser af de klimaændringer, der forudsiges frem til år 2100 ifølge klimascenarierne A2 og B2 fra FN's klimapanel (IPCC), for udbredelsen af 104 udvalgte arter af karplanter i Danmark. Resultaterne i denne rapport tyder på, at klimaændringerne over det 21. århundrede under både A2- og B2-scenarierne må forventes at have en overvejende negativ effekt på de undersøgte arter og sandsynligvis på den botaniske biodiversitet i Danmark som helhed.

My fascination for living organisms, especially plants, started in my early childhood when my grandfather introduced me to the wonders of nature. Numerous walks through forests, heath lands, meadows and salt marches with a magnifying glass and binoculars seeded my interest in understanding the factors setting limits to species’ growth at some places but not at others. Later I went to boarding school where the focus was on biology almost 24 hours a day, and then after high school I moved to Norway for one year where I attended a Folk High School specializing in outdoor life and sustainable use of nature. Finally, I studied Biology at Aarhus University, earning a Bachelor’s degree by studying what determines the distribution of Palms in the Amazon, and afterwards a Master’s and PhD degree by studying the distribution and diversity patterns of the European flora under the supervision of Jens-Christian Svenning. I love traveling and observing the difference in flora and fauna around the world. I have done fieldwork in the Amazon, Eastern Europe and Greenland, and had research stays in Switzerland (4 months, University of Lausanne, Antoine Guisan) and the United States (6 months, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Robert E. Ricklefs). Besides my studies I worked as assistant on botanical inventories and guided tours in the green houses of Aarhus Botanical Gardens. I have enjoyed my passion for vascular plants and bryophytes as a leader for botanical excursions to Corsica and Switzerland, as a board member of Denmark’s Bryological Society, and in both my teaching and personal life.

After receiving my PhD degree I joined Niklaus E. Zimmermann’s lab for a Post Doc at the Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape. Since February 2014 I am back at Aarhus University.

 

Signe Normand and Liv Normand-Treier (photo-copyright: Normand-Treier)